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"Quarters, Jelly Bread and Odds"
January 16, 2009
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I just got back
from CES in Las Vegas and I've been thinking
about odds a lot lately - I wonder why? See, I
don't gamble because I believe in the Law of
Large Numbers. The Law of Large Numbers states:
"Given a random variable with a finite
expected value, if its values are repeatedly
sampled, as the number of these observations
increases, their mean will tend to approach and
stay close to the expected value."
Basically, the more you play - the less likely
you are to win. The best chance you'll ever have
to win is if you play ONCE. I played once in
1988. I lost. I'm done. But, it got me thinking
about odds: If you flip a quarter 1,000 times,
it will come up heads 500 times and tails 500
times plus or minus a small variance (see
below). |
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But, the same does NOT hold true for all
objects. If you drop a piece of bread with jelly on it 1,000 times (as I have
done in my life) the results will NOT be 50/50. My research says that it is more
likely it will land jelly side down 800 times and it will land safely jelly side
up only 200 times (see below). The odds are out to ruin your lunch.
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Even more revealing: This probability will
depend on the flooring. Yes, the flooring. The 80/20 odds (above) hold true ONLY
if you drop the Jelly Bread on a kitchen or hardwood floor. If you are STUPID
enough to make Jelly Bread on a nice rug, you stand ZERO chance of a safe
landing (see below).
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It will land jelly side down 1,000 out of 1,000
times. Why? - Karma? The devil? The Cruel Universe? Basic Jelly Physics?
Conspiracy theorists believe that it is a very clever design by rug
manufacturers to shorten rug life span. You decide. |
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